The U.S. economy saw the light at the end of the tunnel
recession in the U.S. economy will end by the autumn of this year, a slight increase will be recorded in the third quarter, showed the results of a survey Wall Street Journal (WSJ). However, for the full recovery of the world's largest economy would need four to six years. As the factors hampering access to United States pre-crisis position, called the increase in unemployment, mistrust of the U.S., the threat of inflation, as well as the lack of recapitalization of the financial sector.
A poll WSJ, which was attended by 52 eminent American economist, in the current quarter, the economy United States to decline by 1.4% (in January-March decline was recorded at 6.1%). And in the third quarter (to end August), the recession has come to naught, and the economy is slowly but surely begin to grow. In the first half of next year, GDP growth will exceed 2%.
«Since the fall of the growth will resume, and the most recent quarter, it will be from 1 to 2%, – told RBC daily Mesirow Financial chief economist Diane Suonk who participated in the study WSJ. – It is certainly not bad, but not a reason to open champagne ». Ms. Suonk and several other analysts note that while GDP popolzet up, the unemployment rate in the United States will steadily increase, reaching 9.8% by the end of this year and pick up toward 10% at the beginning of next. In turn, inhibits the increase in the number of unemployed persons to return to the growth of consumer spending (it is already expected in April, however, to the dismay of experts, Americans spend fell by 0,4%).
As other factors that may impede the stabilization of the economy, Northern Trust chief economist Paul Kesriel (he also took part in the survey WSJ) noted the growth of distrust in the world to the U.S. currency, as well as the lack of recapitalization of the financial sector, causing banks may fail to fully credit. «In addition, the Federal Reserve will have to« pump »the enormous financial resources, which instils in the economy, and if it will do so too late, we are facing inflation, and if it is too early, the recovery zabuksuet», – said Mr. Kesriel RBC daily.
According to experts, to enter the pre-crisis indicators of the American economy would need four to six years. The majority of economists polled WSJ expressed full support for the actions the Fed to combat the effects of the crisis. «Bernanke – it is the hero of our time, – says Mr. Kesriel. – The Fed has shown a creative innovation structure, replacing the private financial sector, which because of problems with the cap was unable to credit. In particular, it can be noted on the redemption of debt, or buy commercial paper directly from corporate issuers. On the part of President Barack Obama would be a wise decision to leave office after Bernanke in 2010, when he expired powers ».
VYACHESLAV LEONOV